Post-secondary Education

The continued shift to a knowledge-based economy means the best opportunities for job prospects and upward mobility will require education and training beyond high school

Rates of college readiness and enrollment in the region are stagnant or in decline, and not enough Houston-area students earn post-secondary credentials after high school. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have only exacerbated challenges in higher education, particularly among students who have been historically underrepresented, such as Black, Indigenous, and other People of Color.

The data

Before getting into the data about readiness, enrollment and completion, it is helpful to clarify exactly what is post-secondary education. In the simplest terms, any education or training that goes beyond traditional high school coursework is considered post-secondary education. Common post-secondary options include four-year universities, two-year community colleges, trade schools, and apprenticeships.

College readiness rates in the Houston region ticked up … and then back down

College readiness/preparedness refers to the cumulative knowledge and skills a high school graduate is expected to have upon entering higher education. It is commonly measured by GPA, participation in advanced coursework such as Advanced Placement (AP) and International Baccalaureate (IB), as well as performance on state-standardized tests or college entrance exams such as the SAT or ACT.

However, many freshmen who enroll at public Texas colleges and universities are placed into developmental (also known as remedial or pre-college) courses, a determination based on these and other test results. These courses do not typically earn college credit toward degrees but are usually required before students can begin college-level coursework. 

National data show this obstacle is shared by more than a third of students nationwide.¹ Students who are required to spend one to two years in developmental education before beginning college-credit-level coursework are less likely to graduate with a degree or certificate, and if they do, take significantly longer.² Other studies show that when colleges consider multiple measures (such as GPA, time between high school and college, or the number of courses on the subject a student has taken) to determine college readiness, students who would have been originally placed in developmental education but take college-level coursework immediately (or simultaneously), their academic outcomes are better than if they only enrolled in developmental coursework, which calls into question the need for developmental education.³ 

The Texas Education Agency offers a composite measure of College-Ready graduates that reflects the percentage of high school graduates who have met at least one of five criteria: (1) meeting the college-ready criteria on the Texas Success Initiative (TSI) Assessment (ELA/reading and math), SAT, ACT, or by successfully completing and earning credit for a college prep course; (2) earning a minimum of dual course credit hours; (3) passing at least one AP or IB exam; (4) earning an associate’s degree while in high school; or (5) earning OnRamp course credits.

The share of high school graduates in Texas classified as college-ready by these criteria has ticked up over the last three years. The state average increased from 50.0% in 2017-18 to 53.4% in 2019-20.

In 2019-20, Fort Bend County had the highest share of high school graduates in the region who were designated as college-ready at 56.7%, though this rate has declined for two consecutive years from 60.4% in 2017-18. The share of high school graduates who were classified as college-ready in Harris County ticked up between 2017-18 and 2018-19 but then dipped to 51.4% in 2019-20 — essentially unchanged over the three years. The share of college-ready high school graduates in Montgomery County was essentially flat from between 2017-18 and 2018-19 but then dipped to 54.3% in 2019-20. 

SAT/ACT

For decades, the SAT (founded in 1926 and formerly known as the Scholastic Assessment Test) and the ACT (founded in 1959 and formerly known as American College Testing) have been used by four-year colleges and universities to inform admissions and scholarship decisions. However, in recent years, these tests have been less emphasized amid academic and legal claims that they are unfair to low-income, Black, Latino, and other students of color. In Texas, the COVID-19 pandemic affected the availability of test-taking opportunities to such a degree that many universities adopted “test-optional” policies for 2021 and 2022, with some extending the policy into 2023. While their popularity in admissions decisions may be in decline, these tests continue to be used to evaluate the level of academic preparedness of students.

More than 400 school districts across the state participate in SAT School Day — when students can take the SAT on their high school campus during the school day, rather than on the weekend, which is typical — at least once in the last five years. TEA has a contract through 2024-25 with the College Board, which administers the test, to negotiate a statewide rate for each exam at a discount.

Texans are much more likely to take the SAT than the ACT. According to the College Board, nearly 225,700 graduates from Texas public and private high schools in 2020-21 took the SAT compared to 89,000 who took the ACT. Texas ranks 10th nationwide for SAT participation rate (59%) but 29th for ACT participation rate (23%).

Regionally, the highest participation rate among graduates in 2019-20 (85.7%) was in Harris County, while the highest percentage of examinees who were at or above criterion⁴ was in Fort Bend County (51.3%). Between 2017-18 and 2018-19, the percentage of graduates who took either the SAT or ACT increased the most in Montgomery County (from 63.7% to 70.7%, respectively). The share of graduates who scored at or above criterion in 2019-20 was lower than that in 2017-18 in Harris and Montgomery counties.

Participation rates vary considerably by gender, racial group and socioeconomic status. The combined SAT and ACT participation rate among public high school graduates in Texas in 2019-20 was 77% — the highest in the past decade, according to the Texas Education Agency (TEA).

While SAT/ACT participation rates in Texas public schools were above 70% for most demographic groups, the share of test takers who achieved at or above criterion greatly varied by group. As with all racial/ethnic disparities in education, this is partly because of discriminatory and illegal practices that have existed since our nation’s founding (such as redlining and school segregation), exacerbated by present-day inequities (segregation’s lasting impact, poverty, disinvestment in public schools).

Texas Success Initiative (TSI) Assessment

All students who enroll in public colleges and universities in Texas for the first time must take the Texas Success Initiative (TSI) Assessment unless they scored above a certain threshold on the ACT, SAT, or STAAR End-of-Course (EOC) exams; have military experience; are transferring from another higher education institution; or are enrolling in a certificate program that can be completed in less than a year.

Students who take the TSI Assessment must meet minimum standards in the area of mathematics, writing and reading, which indicate they are prepared for freshman-level college coursework. Students who do not meet the benchmark on the TSI Assessment must work with an academic advisor and develop a plan to become classified as “college ready.”

About 61.5% of Texas high school graduates in 2018-19 who took the TSI Assessment met or exceeded the TSI college-ready criteria in all areas, according to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB). 

Success rates in the three-county region on the TSI Assessment parallel that in Texas overall. About 65.0% of graduates in the region met or exceeded minimum standards on the TSI Assessment in 2018-19. Pass-rates are highest in Fort Bend County (72.6%) and lowest in Harris County (63.1%)

Significant disparities can be found in the TSI Assessment success rates across race/ethnicity — ranging about 40 percentage points — and little has been done to close the gap over the past few years. This trend, sometimes referred to as the achievement gap, is actually an opportunity or access gap; it is is primarily an extension of the extreme pre-existing inequities in the delivery of pre-K through 12th grade education and its resulting disparities in academic outcomes.

College enrollment rates directly from Texas high schools have not grown in recent years

College enrollment in the U.S. has been in slight decline over the last decade, even prior to the pandemic. About 1% fewer students enrolled each fall between 2011 and 2019, resulting in a 10% decline in the number of students enrolled in all U.S. colleges, according to estimates from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.⁵ COVID-19 only accelerated that downward trend. Fall enrollment fell by 2.5%, or 461,000 students, between 2019 and 2020, and then declined 2.7% (476,000) in 2021. The result is a 14.3% decline in enrollment in higher education since 2011 — a loss of nearly 3 million students.

For public colleges and universities in Texas, the most recent data available at publication is for graduates in 2018-19. However, the downward trends are here as well. Between fall 2013 and 2019, the percentage of high school graduates enrolled in Texas public higher education institutions each year has declined from 50.2% to 47.1%, respectively. Because students who go out-of-state or attend private universities are not trackable in this data set, this figure tells only part of the full college-going story. THECB estimates that about half of high school graduates are not tracked or identified in Texas’ public higher education system, suggesting they do not enroll, enroll out-of-state, or attend a private institution.

Between 2013 and 2019, the percentage of high school graduates in Texas who enrolled in Texas public four-year universities remained relatively flat at around 20%, while the percentage of those enrolled in Texas two-year colleges dropped from 30.0% to 26.5%.

In Houston’s three-county region, nearly 72,700 public high school students graduated in 2018-19, and 45% continued on to a Texas public higher education institution in the fall of 2019. About 56% of public school high school graduates in Fort Bend, 44% in Harris, and 43% in Montgomery County enrolled in a public 2-year college or public 4-year university in Texas immediately after high school graduation. College enrollment rates in 2019 at both types of higher education institutions were lower from high schools located in Harris and Montgomery counties compared to Texas overall.

College enrollment by race/ethnicity is available only at the state level. Texas high school graduates who identify as Asian American enroll in the state’s public four-year universities at the highest rate (43.6%) and in two-year colleges at the lowest rate (19.6%) compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Hispanic students enroll in two-year colleges at the highest rate and enroll in four-year universities at the lowest rate followed by Black high school graduates.

Note: Educational outcomes vary significantly within the “Asian” category as the term includes a group of people who descend from about 50 different countries with distinct political and immigration histories. For example, according to a 2021 report from the Pew Research Center, 75% of Indian Americans have a bachelor’s degree, while only 16% of Laotians and 15% of Bhutanese do.

The share of Texas high school graduates who applied to in-state public four-year universities the fall semester immediately following high school graduation has remained relatively flat over the last few years. Between 2013 and 2017, the application rate steadily increased a little more than two percentage points, after which it declined slightly to 34.4% in fall 2019.

Similarly, the college admission rate for this population ticked up in 2019 to 30.2% from 28.5% in 2013 . However, the percentage of college applicants who were accepted to a four-year in-state public university but did not enroll also increased from 8.5% to 10.3% during the same time period. Several factors contribute to a high school graduate’s decision to not enroll in a higher education program to which they have been accepted. Students may opt to attend a different higher education institution such as community college, a private university, or somewhere out of state, or to not enroll entirely — a phenomenon known as “summer melt.” Research shows that access to financial aid is among the largest factors that contribute to “summer melt,” and that targeting interventions for students who come from low-income backgrounds or racial/ethnic groups that have been historically underrepresented and under-supported in higher education could have the most significant impact.^6,7,8 

Low graduation rates from colleges in Texas creates wide-ranging costs for the region

Completing college with a degree or certificate is important for both individuals pursuing higher education and the region at-large. Students who finish college are more likely to work in jobs that earn adequate wages and provide benefits, and actively contribute to their communities civically.⁹ Moreover, when students leave college without completing a degree, they are saddled with the debt that most students accumulate without the wage premium benefit that higher education degrees typically provide. This double-negative situation where costs increase without improvement in earnings leads to a higher likelihood of defaulting on student loans, which jeopardizes future earnings, job and housing prospects; damages credit history and limits the ability to borrow money in the future; and hinders overall economic mobility and prosperity.¹⁰

Nationally, 45% of students who enroll full-time in a four-year university for the first-time graduate within four years and about 63% graduate in six years (150% of normal time), though graduation rates at private nonprofit universities tend to be higher than at public universities. At two-year colleges, 33% of similar degree-seeking students finish with a credential within 150% of normal time, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

The following data shows the number of high school students who received a degree or credential from a public Texas four- or two-year college within eight years of their high school graduation. These data should be interpreted differently from the aforementioned national graduation rates: The national graduation rate is representative of the overall number of students who enroll in college whereas the Texas-related data below is representative of the number of graduating public high school students. It is for this reason the Texas “completion” rates are significantly lower than the national rates and should not be compared.

About 19% of students who graduated from a Texas public high school in 2013 (the most recent year for which there is complete data) received a degree from a public in-state four-year university within eight years of their high school graduation. Nearly 9% of high school grads completed their degree within four years or fewer (normal time). An additional 6% took five years, and 3% more took six years (150% of normal time) to finish a “four-year” degree.

About 10% of students who graduated from a Texas public high school in 2013 (the most recent year for which there is complete data) received a degree or certificate from a public in-state two-year college within eight years. About 2% of high school grads completed in fewer than two years (normal time) after high school graduation and an additional 4% completed a credential after three and four years (150%-200% of normal time). The traditional mission of community colleges is different from four-year universities as students typically hope to transfer from a two-year college to a four-year university, and they may or may not receive a credential on that path.

Learn about student mobility and its effect on educational attainment.

Too few eighth graders earn a college credential by the time they turn 25

Tracking the educational progress of eighth-graders who attend Texas public schools shows that a small share ultimately received a college credential from a Texas higher education institution within six years of their projected high school graduation date, or by the time they are 25 years old.

Among Texas students who started eighth grade in 2008, nearly 80% graduated from high school, about 50% enrolled in a university or college in Texas, and less than a quarter graduated with a post-secondary degree.

What about the progress of Houston-area public school students going to college in Texas? Outcomes in Houston’s three-county region closely mirror that in the state. Nearly 69,800 eighth-graders were enrolled in Houston’s three-county region in 2008-09: about 7,400 in Fort Bend; 55,900 in Harris; and 6,400 in Montgomery.

Nearly 78% of Houston-area eighth-graders graduated from high school, 53% enrolled in higher education within the state, and 23% received a post-secondary credential. Students who live in Fort Bend County have had better outcomes than those in Harris or Montgomery counties. While students in Fort Bend County public schools have only a slightly higher high school graduation rate than the state average, they graduate from college at nine percentage points higher than the state rate (32% compared to 23%). Outcomes for students in Harris County, the most populous county in the state, are the lowest in the region.

Texas institutions award more degrees and certificates

To address this challenge of college completion, the second goal of 60x30TX is for the state to graduate 550,000 students annually from a higher education institution in Texas by 2030. THECB has set different benchmarks for different regions of the state. Since 60x30TX started in 2015, there has been a 2.3% annual increase in the number of Certificate, Associate, Bachelor’s, and Master’s (CABMs) degrees completed at all four- and two-year colleges in Texas in the public, independent and career sectors. While this represents progress, the number of CABMs must increase by 5.3% each year over the next decade to meet the stated goal by 2030.

Texas institutions of higher education in the public, private and career sectors collectively awarded a total of 348,394 degrees and certificates in 2020 — a 12% increase from 2015. More than 40% were bachelor’s degrees and 28% were associate degrees. Between 2015 and 2020, the number of certificates declined 6%, associate degrees increased 21%, bachelor’s degrees rose 16%, and master’s degrees grew 8%. THECB found that more than a third (36.7%) of the degrees and certificates awarded in 2020 went to undergraduates from economically-disadvantaged households.

Too few high school graduates are classified as prepared for a career or the military

Beyond the focus of college-ready graduates, the TEA also measures College, Career, or Military Readiness (CCMR). In 2019 Texas House Bill 3 established a CCMR outcomes bonus, which provides extra education funding to districts to offer students greater access to career opportunities, more advanced career and technical education (CTE) courses and ultimately further the 60x30TX goal that every child is prepared for success in college, career or the military. A graduate is considered CCMR if they meet at least one of eleven criteria, including one of the five college-ready criteria or one of the six career or military readiness criteria.

Of the 360,000 Texas public high school graduates in 2019-20, 227,000 (or 63.1%) demonstrated college, career, or military readiness. That was a decline of 10 percentage points from the year before.

The share of graduates classified as CCMR in each county of the region and the state ticked up between 2017-18 and 2018-19 but declined the following year in 2019-20, with the result being lower than the rates in 2017-18. About 63% of high school graduates in the three-county region in 2019-20 were deemed CCMR compared to 73% the year before. This substantial decline results in a slightly lower rate than 2017-18.

Read about foundational academic readiness in early childhood education in Texas.

Career or Military Ready

While most post-secondary outcomes focus on higher education (“college ready”), Texas high schools can help students achieve alternative paths to employment. In 2019, Texas House Bill 3 took into account these alternatives when constructing the CCMR Outcomes Bonus awards.

According to the TEA, a high school graduate is considered career ready if they meet any of the college-ready criteria and earn an industry-based certification, or a level I or level II certificate by August 31 immediately following high school graduation. The graduate is considered military ready if they demonstrate a plan to enlist in the armed forces of the United States by December 31 immediately following high school graduation.

The share of high school graduates who were designated as career or military ready over the past three years had a similar trend to that of college readiness. Students made progress between 2017-18 and 2018-19, but then fell further back in 2019-20. Rates of career or military readiness in each of the greater Houston region’s three counties and the state overall in 2019-20 were far below where they were the previous year and even lower than they were in 2017-18 (except in Fort Bend, where they are about the same).

In 2019-20, the percentage of high school graduates classified as career or military ready was nearly 10 percentage points lower in Fort Bend County, 20 points lower in Harris County, 18 points lower in Montgomery County, and 22 points lower in Texas overall than they were the year before.

Career and Technical Education Programs

Public schools offer career and technical education (CTE) programs to help students in grades 6 through 12 develop skills, advance to postsecondary education at a technical college in Texas (or four-year institutions), and gain future employment opportunities.

The number of students in grades 6 through 12 who participated in CTE programs in Texas increased 36% to 1.5 million in 2019-20 from 1.1 million in 2012-13. In 2020, 50% of Texas students in grades 9-12 were enrolled in CTE programs. A slightly lower share of students were enrolled in CTE programs in Houston’s three-county region (46.8%) with Harris County having the highest percentage (49%).

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