Academic Outcomes

How well students perform throughout elementary, middle and high school has profound effects on other important areas of their lives

Academic outcomes for students in Houston’s three-county region suffered because of the pandemic, and while third-grade reading performance has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, eighth-grade math has not yet recovered. Additionally, high school graduation rates have slightly decreased for some demographic groups. Meanwhile, the percentage of students who leave high school without a diploma increased in Fort Bend, remained flat in Harris County, and fell in Montgomery County.

Why academic outcomes matters to Houston

Schools play a vital role, equipping children and adolescents with the foundational skills and knowledge they need to succeed and contribute to our society. However, children in the Houston region have disparate access to high-quality education that adequately prepares them for academic success. An analysis of 10 years of data from 4,000 school districts and 430 million test scores by the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University found that the strongest predictor of academic achievement gaps is the racial concentration of poverty in schools. Locally and nationally, Black and Hispanic students are five times more likely to attend a high-poverty (i.e. at least 75% of students experience poverty) school than white students1, which results in very different educational experiences: High-poverty schools tend to have lower access to resources than low-poverty schools, students from low-income families on average perform better in low-poverty than high-poverty schools and it costs more per-pupil to educate a poor student in a high-poverty school than it does to educate a similar student in a low-poverty school. Not only are these gaps harmful for the affected individuals, but they also have consequences on the wider economy. A 2009 report by McKinsey & Company estimated that gaps in educational outcomes have had a larger negative impact on GDP than all recessions from the 1970s up to that point.

Individuals who struggle to read critically, understand mathematical concepts, and graduate from high school are most likely to have limited prospects — academic, professional, social, economic — in the future. Established literature has found that student performance in third-grade reading2 and eighth-grade math or algebra3 are most predictive of future educational outcomes. Three key indicators — standardized test performance, high school graduation rates and non-completion rates — illustrate, in part, how Houston-area schools are serving students.

The better we understand how Houston-area students are performing, the more that can be done to ensure our schools are adequately preparing them for a productive and prosperous future.

The data

STAAR third-grade reading scores surpass pre-pandemic performance

Third grade has been identified as important to reading literacy because it is the final year children are learning to read, after which they are “reading to learn.” Proficiency in third-grade reading exams correlates with success in future academic outcomes,4 including success in higher-level math coursework,5 eighth-grade reading level and college enrollment.6 Moreover, research has shown that third-grade students who do not read proficiently are four times more likely to not graduate from high school on time than those who read proficiently.7 An analysis from the Texas Education Agency (TEA) found that among third graders in 2017 who did not meet grade-level-standards in reading, only 5% caught up within two years.

Third grade has been identified as important to reading literacy because it is the final year children are learning to read, after which they are “reading to learn.” Proficiency in third grade reading exams correlates with success in future academic outcomes,5 including success in higher-level math coursework,6 eighth-grade reading level and college enrollment.7 Moreover, research has shown that third-grade students who do not read proficiently are four times more likely to not graduate from high school on time than those who read proficiently.8 Analysis from the TEA found that among third-graders who did not meet grade-level-standards in reading, only 5% caught up within two years.

The State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness (STAAR) testing program is based on curriculum standards in grades 3 through 8 (such as reading, writing, mathematics) and in core subjects typically taken in high school (such as history, science, social studies). Because of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Texas canceled STAAR tests in Spring 2020. TEA made the test optional in 2021 for students who were learning remotely (76% of whom still participated). Overall, 88% of students across the state participated in STAAR in 2021 compared to 99% in 2019. Given these anomalies, the 2021 data should be interpreted with caution. STAAR participation rates ticked back up with 99% of Texas students taking the third-grade reading exam in 2022 and 2023.

Evidence of the pandemic’s disruption to student learning is indicated in the percentage of students who met or exceeded standards on the STAAR third-grade reading test. From 2019 to 2021, the percentage of third graders who met or exceeded standards declined statewide and in all three counties with Harris County experiencing the largest decrease and Montgomery County the smallest.

By 2022, the percentage of third graders who met grade-level standards for reading rebounded, increasing by double digits in all three counties and the state, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. These gains continued into 2023 when 60% of Fort Bend County third graders met or exceeded reading standards, compared to 48% in Harris County and 56% in Montgomery County.

The percentage of third graders in Fort Bend County who met grade-level reading standards rose by 10 points between 2018 (50%) and 2023 (60%).

The same pattern emerges when disaggregating by various demographic and school program characteristics as all groups saw an increase in the share of students who met standards in 2023 compared to 2018.

In Fort Bend County, Black students saw the largest gains in the percentage that met or exceeded standards for third-grade reading, increasing by 15 points; economically disadvantaged students experienced a 13-point increase. In Harris County, students not classified as economically disadvantaged saw the largest improvement (11 points) followed closely by Black students (11 points). In Montgomery County, Black and white students both experienced an 11-point increase in the percentage of students who met or exceeded standards in third-grade reading.

Despite these improvements, disparities across groups persist. Students with disabilities continue to face the greatest challenges in meeting third-grade reading standards. In 2023, only 19% met state standards in Harris County compared to 26% in Fort Bend County. In 2023, non-economically disadvantaged students in the three-county region met third-grade reading standards at rates 26–32 percentage points higher than students who are classified as economically disadvantaged. While this gap between economically disadvantaged students and their wealthier peers closed by 5 points in Fort Bend County between 2018 and 2023, it grew by 5 points in Harris County and was flat in Montgomery County. Similarly, Fort Bend was the only county to see performance gaps close between white students and their Black and Hispanic classmates, by 8 and 5 points, respectively.

STAAR eighth-grade math and algebra scores do not recover to pre-pandemic levels

Proficiency in eighth-grade math is an important measure to assess student readiness for high school and has been linked to future academic success in higher-level math, which has consequences for college readiness and enrollment.8

Eighth-graders who are not enrolled in algebra take the eighth-grade math STAAR test, while eighth-graders who are enrolled in algebra take the End-of-Course (EOC) exam to assess proficiency.

Student performance on the STAAR eighth grade math exam was significantly impacted by the pandemic. In the three-county region between 2019 and 2021, the share of students who met or exceeded standards on the STAAR eighth-grade math exam fell by 20 points. While the percentage of eighth graders who performed at grade level on the STAAR math exam increased between 2021 and 2022 (except in Montgomery County), it remained below pre-pandemic levels.

The share of students in all three counties and in Texas overall who met standards on the STAAR eighth-grade math test was lower in 2023 than in 2018. Despite experiencing the largest decline during this period, Mongomery County continued to lead the three-county region in the rate of students on grade-level for eighth-grade math in 2023 at 56%, followed by 44% in Fort Bend County and 42% in Harris County.

The percentage of eighth graders in Montgomery County (not enrolled in algebra) who met grade-level math standards declined by 9 points between 2018 (65%) and 2023 (56%).

In Houston’s three-county area, most demographic groups saw declines in the percentage of eighth graders who met grade level standards in math. In Fort Bend and Montgomery counties between 2018 and 2023, female students saw the largest decline, by 9 and 11 points, respectively. In Harris County, Hispanic students saw the largest fall in the share of students meeting performance on the STAAR eighth-grade math exam—a decline of 10 points. While most demographic groups saw declining eighth-grade math performance, students with disabilities either improved or maintained their previous levels across all three counties and the state. Despite this relative progress, they still have the lowest percentage of students meeting grade-level standards.

In Harris County, the performance gap in STAAR eighth-grade math between economically disadvantaged students and their more affluent peers widened by 10 points from 2018 to 2023.

Algebra is typically introduced in ninth grade and is an indicator of future academic success.9 However, students who take algebra in eighth grade are more likely to attend and complete college.10 Results for students who took algebra in between 2018 and 2023 are below. These results include anyone who took the Algebra End-of-Course (EOC) in eighth or ninth grade.

Students who take the Algebra EOC are generally more likely to meet or exceed standards than students who take the STAAR eighth-grade math (except in Montgomery County). This variance is likely because students who take algebra are further along in their academic learning, either because they are in ninth grade, or because they are ready for higher-level mathematics.

However, performance on the Algebra EOC exams saw similarly significant declines due to the pandemic as the eighth-grade math test, with the share of students who met standards falling 17 points across the three-county region between 2019 and 2021. While both STAAR eighth-grade math and Algebra EOC performance began to rebound after 2021, they both remained below where they were pre-pandemic, with performance declining more for Algebra EOC than for STAAR eighth-grade math between 2018 and 2023.

The share of students in Fort Bend County who met or exceeded standards on the Algebra EOC exam declined by 16 percentage points from 2018 to 2023—the largest decline in the region. In 2023, 50% of students in Fort Bend County passed the Algebra EOC exam—the highest passing rate in the region— followed by 48% in Montgomery County, and 46% in Harris County. All three counties performed better than the state at 44%.

Only half of students in Fort Bend County passed the Algebra EOC exam in 2023—the highest rate in the three-county region.

Each student group who took the Algebra EOC met or exceeded standards at a higher rate than their peers within the same county who took the eighth-grade math STAAR. This is true for every geography, except Montgomery County. However, declines on the Algebra EOC were larger than declines on the eighth-grade math test across all demographic groups between 2018 and 2023, Fort Bend County experienced some of the largest declines in the three-county region, with performance falling 19 points for Hispanic students, 18 points for female and economically disadvantaged students, and 17 points for Black students.

In Fort Bend County, the Algebra EOC performance gap between economically disadvantaged students and their wealthier peers grew by 8 points between 2018 and 2023.

High school graduation rates increase for emergent bilingual students

Graduating from high school within four years is correlated with many positive future educational and life outcomes, as a diploma is a minimum requirement for most well-paying jobs and higher education. People with high school diplomas are less likely to rely on public assistance and interact with the criminal legal system, and are more likely to pursue higher education and have higher earnings.11

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the graduation rate for the class of 2023 was 87.4% for the nation and 88.7% for Texas, ranking the state 16th among the 50 states and District of Columbia.

In the Houston three-county region, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties have consistently had higher graduation rates compared to the state, while Harris County’s rate has been the lowest, though that gap has narrowed in recent years. Harris County’s graduation rate increased by 4 percentage points from 84% in 2011 to 88% in 2023; Fort Bend and Montgomery counties also increased their rates over the last decade, but with smaller gains relative to Harris County.

As with most educational outcomes, high school graduation rates vary by demographic characteristics and program. This is partly because of discriminatory practices that have existed since the nation’s founding (such as redlining), exacerbated by present-day disparities (i.e., poverty, disinvestment in public schools).

Among the Class of 2023, within their respective counties, men had slightly lower graduation rates than women; economically-disadvantaged students had lower graduation rates than their more economically secure peers; and students with disabilities or who were emergent bilingual had the lowest graduation rates. While graduation rates between 2020 and 2023 stagnated for most demographic groups, it increased by about 4 percentage points for students with disabilities in Harris County and emergent bilingual students in Montgomery County. However, graduation rates decreased by 2 percentage points for Asian students in Montgomery County and Hispanic students in Fort Bend County. Additionally, the difference in graduation rates between 2020 and 2023 for non-economically disadvantaged students compared to their economically disadvantaged peers increased slightly in Fort Bend and Harris counties while it decreased slightly in Montgomery County. The same pattern emerged for white students compared to their Black and Hispanic classmates.

High school non-completion rates in the Houston area vary by county

Given the importance of high school graduation for later educational and economic outcomes, it is unsurprising that leaving high school without a diploma has consistently been linked with negative life outcomes. Students who leave high school without a diploma are more likely to be unemployed, earn less, rely on public assistance, and become involved in the criminal legal system.12 On average, a person without a high school diploma can expect to earn about $330,000 less over their lifetime than someone with a high school diploma as their highest level of educational attainment.13

Studies suggest that not completing high school is the outcome of a dynamic and cumulative process of disengagement. Common reasons for leaving before graduating include missing too many school days, failing too many classes, not being engaged in school, and having family obligations. The key to reducing the non-completion rate is to pay attention to all signs of disengagement and intervene at an early stage.14,15

The high school non-completion rate in Texas has hovered around 6% over the past decade. Non-completion rates are consistently highest in Harris County, and although they had improved from 9% in 2011 to 7% in 2021, they ticked up to 8% in 2023. Non-completion rates in Fort Bend and Montgomery counties have been relatively steady since 2011. Nationally, the high school non-completion rate was 5% in 2022, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

High school non-completion rates are consistently highest in Harris County.

High schools in the three-county region are less likely to graduate Black and Latino students, which is why these groups also have higher non-completion rates compared to their white peers. This is partly because Black and Latino students are five times more likely to attend a high-poverty school than white students,16 resulting in unequal educational experiences.17

Among the Class of 2023, men left high school early at slightly higher rates than women; students classified as economically disadvantaged did not finish at higher rates than their higher-income peers; and students with disabilities or who are emergent bilingual had the highest non-completion rates.

Between 2020 and 2023, non-completion rates in Fort Bend County, increased by about 4 percentage points among students with disabilities and classified as emergent bilingual and increased by 2 percentage points for Hispanic and economically disadvantaged students. High school non-completion rates fell by 2 percentage points for emergent bilingual students in Montgomery County during the same period.

Resources

References:

  1. Analysis of data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University by Dr. Ruth Turley, Houston Education Research Consortium. Retrieved from https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/concentrated-poverty-schools-redlinings-legacy-undoing-it-should-be-ours
  2. Hernandez, D. J. (2011). Double jeopardy: How third-grade reading skills and poverty influence high school graduation. Annie E. Casey Foundation. Retrieved from https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED518818.pdf
  3. Wang, J., & Goldschmidt, P. (2003). Importance of middle school mathematics on high school students’ mathematics achievement. The Journal of Educational Research, 97(1), 3-17.
  4. Dan Goldhaber, Malcolm Wolff, Timothy Daly (2021). Assessing the Accuracy of Elementary School Test Scores as Predictors of Students’ High School Outcomes. CALDER Working Paper No. 235-0821-2
  5. Kevin J. Grimm. (2008). Longitudinal Associations Between Reading and Mathematics Achievement, Developmental Neuropsychology, 33:3, 410-426, DOI: 10.1080/87565640801982486
  6. Lesnick, J., Goerge, R.M., & Smithgall, C. (2010). Reading on grade level in third grade: How is it related to high school performance and college enrollment? Chicago, IL: Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago.
  7. The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2010). Early Warning! Why Reading by the End of Third Grade Matters. KIDS COUNT Special Report. Retrieved from https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/AECF-Early_Warning_Full_Report-2010.pdf
  8. Wang, J., & Goldschmidt, P. (2003).
  9. Walston, J., & McCarroll, J. C. (2010). Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K). Statistics in Brief. NCES 2010-016. National Center for Education Statistics.
  10. Loveless, Tom. (2001) “How well are American students learning?” The Brown Center Report on Education, Washington, DC. 1(2). https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/09education-1.pdf
  11. Rumberger, R. W. (1987). High school dropouts: A review of issues and evidence. Review of educational research, 57(2), 101-121.
  12. Rumberger, R. W. (1987).
  13. Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Wenzinger, E.(2021). The College Payoff: More Education Doesn’t Always Mean More Earnings. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved from https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegepayoff2021/.
  14. National Research Council. High school dropout, graduation, and completion rates: Better data, better measures, better decisions. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2011. https://www.nap.edu/read/13035/chapter/1
  15. Doll, J. J., Eslami, Z., & Walters, L. (2013). Understanding Why Students Drop Out of High School, According to Their Own Reports: Are They Pushed or Pulled, or Do They Fall Out? A Comparative Analysis of Seven Nationally Representative Studies. SAGE Open. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244013503834
  16. Analysis of data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University by Dr. Ruth Turley, Houston Education Research Consortium. Retrieved from https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/concentrated-poverty-schools-redlinings-legacy-undoing-it-should-be-ours
  17. Rothstein, R. (2015). The racial achievement gap, segregated schools, and segregated neighborhoods: A constitutional insult. Race and social problems, 7(1), 21-30.