Academic Outcomes

How well students perform throughout elementary, middle and high school has profound effects on other important areas of their lives

Academic outcomes for students in Houston’s three-county region have suffered since the pandemic, and they weren’t that great to begin with. Students of color and from low-income households have experienced the greatest disparities and declines.

Why academic outcomes matters to Houston

Schools play a vital role, equipping children and adolescents with the foundational skills and knowledge they need to succeed and contribute to our society. However, children in the Houston region have disparate access to high-quality education that adequately prepares them for academic success. Black and Hispanic students in the region (and nationally) are five times more likely to attend a high-poverty school than white students, which results in very different educational experiences and contributes to the fact that Black and Hispanic students lag between three and three-and-a-half years behind their white counterparts.1 Not only are these gaps harmful for the affected individuals, but also they also have consequences on the wider economy. A 2009 report by McKinsey & Company estimated that gaps in educational outcomes have had a larger negative impact on GDP than all recessions from the 1970s up to that point. More recent estimates suggest that closing these gaps would increase national GDP by $551 billion and increase local, state and federal tax revenues by $198 billion annually.

Individuals who struggle to read critically, understand mathematical concepts, and graduate from high school are most likely to have limited prospects — academic, professional, social, economic — in the future. Established literature has found that student performance in third-grade reading2 and eighth-grade math or algebra3 are most predictive of future educational outcomes. Three key indicators — standardized test performance, high school graduation rates and dropout rates — illustrate, in part, how Houston-area schools are serving students.

The better we understand how Houston-area students are performing and why, the more that can be done to ensure our schools are adequately preparing them for a productive and prosperous future.

The data

Learning loss during the COVID-19 pandemic

Quantifying and understanding the amount of learning students lost during the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex undertaking and cannot be measured by performance on standardized testing alone — regardless of whether a student attended school in-person or remotely.

Not only have students been navigating the risk of infection and illness, but also they have faced evictions, household job and income losses, potential loss in healthcare, increased food insecurity, and the ultimate loss — deaths of parents, grandparents, caretakers and other loved ones. All of this has significantly impacted children’s mental health, which most certainly affects their ability to learn.

Early indicators make clear the pandemic disrupted students’ learning, and while billions of dollars in federal aid are currently being spent to accelerate gains and close gaps, the consequences of COVID-19 on education are likely to continue for many years. One study found that this educational disruption “could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 1.1 years of schooling adjusted for quality.”4 In Texas, the TEA warned the learning loss could reduce potential earnings for Texas students and cost the Texas economy an estimated $2 trillion. In addition to the overall loss, many educators warn of the “K-shaped recovery” where some students, particularly marginalized students, don’t recover as quickly and gaps in outcomes persist or increase over time.

Finally, it must be recognized that while the pandemic worsened many educational inequalities, it did not create them. Addressing the root-causes of educational inequalities will necessitate long-term and sustained investments in neighborhoods and communities around the Houston region over many decades to eliminate the systemic inequities that have become entrenched.

STAAR third-grade reading scores dip five points after pandemic

Third grade has been identified as important to reading literacy because it is the final year children are learning to read, after which they are “reading to learn.” Proficiency in third grade reading exams correlates with success in future academic outcomes,5 including success in higher-level math coursework,6 eighth-grade reading level and college enrollment.7 Moreover, research has shown that third-grade students who do not read proficiently are four times more likely to not graduate from high school on time than those who read proficiently.8 Analysis from the TEA found that among third-graders who did not meet grade-level-standards in reading, only 5% caught up within two years.

The State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness (STAAR) testing program is based on curriculum standards in grades 3 through 8 (such as reading, writing, mathematics) and in core subjects typically taken in high school (such as history, science, social studies). Because of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Texas canceled STAAR tests in Spring 2020. TEA made the test optional in 2021 for students who were learning remotely—76% of whom still participated. Overall, 88% of students across the state participated in STAAR in 2021 compared to 99% in 2019. Given these anomalies, the 2021 data should be interpreted with caution.

Evidence of the pandemic’s disruption to student learning is indicated in the percentage of students who met or exceeded expectations on the third-grade STAAR reading test. From spring 2019 to spring 2021, the percentage of third-graders in Texas who met or exceeded expectations declined by 5.3 points; in the three-county region success rates fell by about five points. Montgomery County saw the smallest decline (1.5 points) in those meeting grade-level standards, while Harris County saw the biggest drop (5.9 points).

The percentage of third graders in the three-county region who met grade-level reading standards fell by about five points between 2019 and 2021.

Outcomes disaggregated by various demographic and school program characteristics show that almost all groups saw a decline in the share of students who met standards in 2021 compared to 2019. Asian-American, Hispanic, and economically-disadvantaged students saw the biggest declines, ranging between 7.5 and 8.4 percentage points. 

STAAR eighth-grade math and algebra scores take a big hit

Proficiency in eighth-grade math is an important measure to assess student readiness for high school and has been linked to future academic success in higher-level math, which has consequences for college readiness and enrollment.9

Eighth-graders who are not enrolled in algebra (roughly two-thirds of eighth-graders10) take the eighth-grade math STAAR test, while eighth-graders who are enrolled in algebra take the End-of-Course (EOC) exam to assess proficiency.

About one-third of eighth-graders not enrolled in algebra in Texas (34.7%) met grade-level standards in math in 2021. This is 20.2 points lower than in 2019. The percentage of students who met standards fell 24 points in Fort Bend, 20 points in Harris and 14 points in Montgomery County the first full academic year of the pandemic. 

Double-digit declines in math proficiency among eighth-graders in 2020-21.

In Houston’s three-county area, all demographic groups saw large drops in the percentage of eighth-graders who met grade level standards in math. Female, Black, Hispanic, and economically-disadvantaged students all saw a decline of 22 percentage points.

Algebra is typically introduced in ninth grade and is an indicator of future academic success.11 However, students who take algebra in eighth grade are more likely to attend and complete college.12 About one-third of eighth-graders in Texas enroll in algebra, which is roughly 10 percentage points higher than the rate in 2014, according to the Texas Tribune.13 Results for students who took algebra in 2021 are below. These results include anyone who took the Algebra End-of-Course (EOC) in eighth or ninth grade.

About 44.6% of students in Houston’s three-county region who took Algebra EOC exams in 2021 met or exceeded state standards — a 16.6 percentage-point decline from 2019. A larger share of students in the Houston area have met algebra standards than the Texas average. Prior to the pandemic, students in Fort Bend County had the highest success rates in the region, but in 2021, students from Montgomery County out-performed.

Each student group who took the Algebra EOC met or exceeded standards at a higher rate than their peers within the same county who took the eighth-grade math STAAR. This is true at every level of geography, except Montgomery County, where students who took the Algebra EOC met state standards at lower rates than their counterparts who took eighth-grade math STAAR exams. This variance is likely because students who take algebra are further along in their academic learning, either because they are in ninth grade, or because they are ready for higher-level mathematics.

High school graduation rates in the region tick up as they decline in the state overall

Graduating from high school in four years is correlated with many positive future educational and life outcomes, as a diploma is a minimum requirement for most well-paying jobs and higher education. People with high school diplomas are less likely to rely on public assistance and interact with the criminal legal system, and are more likely to pursue higher education and have higher earnings.14

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the graduation rate for the Class of 2019 averaged 86% for the nation and 90% for Texas, placing the state eighth among 50 states and the District of Columbia. The TEA reported the graduation rate for the Class of 2020 remained unchanged from the previous year at 90%.15

The high school graduation rate among the Class of 2020 in Houston’s three-county region was nearly 90%. The gap between the state’s and the region’s graduation rates has narrowed since 2011, when the three-county region’s graduation rate was 6.2 percentage points below the state overall. Harris County has had consistently lower graduation rates than the state as well as Fort Bend and Montgomery counties, though that gap has narrowed. Harris County’s graduation rate increased to 88.4% in 2020 from 83.8% in 2011; Fort Bend and Montgomery counties also increased their rates over the last decade, but with smaller gains relative to Harris County.

The gap between the state’s and the region’s graduation rates has narrowed since 2011

As with most educational outcomes, high school graduation rates vary by demographic characteristics and program. This is partly because of discriminatory and illegal practices that have existed since the nation’s founding (such as redlining and school segregation), exacerbated by present-day inequities (i.e., segregation’s lasting impact, poverty, disinvestment in public schools).

Among the Class of 2020 within their respective counties, men had slightly lower graduation rates than women; economically-disadvantaged students had lower graduation rates than their more economically secure peers; and students with disabilities or who were learning English had the lowest graduation rates.

High school dropout rates in the Houston area vary by county

Given the importance of high school graduation for later educational and life outcomes, it is unsurprising that dropping out of high school has consistently been linked with negative life outcomes. Students who leave high school without a diploma are more likely to be unemployed, to earn less than those who graduate, to be on public assistance, and to become involved in the criminal legal system.16 On average, a person who drops out of high school can expect to earn about $330,000 less over their lifetime than someone with a high school diploma only.17

Studies suggest that dropping out of school is the outcome of a dynamic and cumulative process of disengagement. Common reasons include missing too many school days, failing too many classes, not being engaged in school, and having family obligations. The key to reducing the dropout rate is to pay attention to all signs of disengagement and intervene at an early stage.18,19

The high school drop-out rate in Texas has hovered around 5% over the past decade. Dropout rates are consistently highest in Harris County, though they have improved to 7.3% in 2020 from 8.7% in 2011. Dropout rates in Fort Bend and Montgomery counties are relatively similar, about 3%. Nationally, the high school dropout rate has declined from 8.3% in 2010 to 5.1% in 2019, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

Dropout rates are consistently highest in Harris County, though they have improved

High schools in the three-county region are less likely to graduate Black and Latino students, which is why we see higher dropout rates among Black and Latino students than their white peers. This is partly because these students are five times more likely to attend a high-poverty school than white students,20 resulting in unequal educational experiences.21

Among the Class of 2020, men dropped out at slightly higher rates than women; students classified as economically-disadvantaged dropped out at higher rates than their higher-income peers; and students with disabilities or who were English language learners had the highest dropout rates. 

Resources

References:

  1. Analysis of data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University by Dr. Ruth Turley, Houston Education Research Consortium. Retrieved from https://www.understandinghouston.org/blog/the-costliest-problem-we-know-how-to-fix
  2. Hernandez, D. J. (2011). Double jeopardy: How third-grade reading skills and poverty influence high school graduation. Annie E. Casey Foundation. Retrieved from https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED518818.pdf
  3. Wang, J., & Goldschmidt, P. (2003). Importance of middle school mathematics on high school students’ mathematics achievement. The Journal of Educational Research, 97(1), 3-17.
  4. João Pedro Azevedo, Amer Hasan, Diana Goldemberg, Koen Geven, Syedah Aroob Iqbal, Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates, The World Bank Research Observer, Volume 36, Issue 1, February 2021, Pages 1–40, https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkab003
  5. Dan Goldhaber, Malcolm Wolff, Timothy Daly (2021). Assessing the Accuracy of Elementary School Test Scores as Predictors of Students’ High School Outcomes. CALDER Working Paper No. 235-0821-2
  6. Kevin J. Grimm. (2008). Longitudinal Associations Between Reading and Mathematics Achievement, Developmental Neuropsychology, 33:3, 410-426, DOI: 10.1080/87565640801982486
  7. Lesnick, J., Goerge, R.M., & Smithgall, C. (2010). Reading on grade level in third grade: How is it related to high school performance and college enrollment? Chicago, IL: Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago.
  8. The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2010). Early Warning! Why Reading by the End of Third Grade Matters. KIDS COUNT Special Report. Retrieved from https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/AECF-Early_Warning_Full_Report-2010.pdf
  9. Wang, J., & Goldschmidt, P. (2003).
  10. Email from Texas Education Agency, Performance Reporting Division dated 2/4/22
  11. Walston, J., & McCarroll, J. C. (2010). Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K). Statistics in Brief. NCES 2010-016. National Center for Education Statistics.
  12. Loveless, Tom. (2001) “How well are American students learning?” The Brown Center Report on Education, Washington, DC. 1(2). https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/09education-1.pdf
  13. Email from Texas Education Agency, Performance Reporting Division dated 2/4/22
  14. Rumberger, R. W. (1987). High school dropouts: A review of issues and evidence. Review of educational research, 57(2), 101-121.
  15. There are many ways to measure graduation rates that depend on how the denominators, or universe, is calculated. Some critics argue that TEA’s calculation may not be an accurate measure.
  16. Rumberger, R. W. (1987).
  17. Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Wenzinger, E.(2021). The College Payoff: More Education Doesn’t Always Mean More Earnings. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved from https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegepayoff2021/.
  18. National Research Council. High school dropout, graduation, and completion rates: Better data, better measures, better decisions. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2011. https://www.nap.edu/read/13035/chapter/1
  19. Doll, J. J., Eslami, Z., & Walters, L. (2013). Understanding Why Students Drop Out of High School, According to Their Own Reports: Are They Pushed or Pulled, or Do They Fall Out? A Comparative Analysis of Seven Nationally Representative Studies. SAGE Open. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244013503834
  20. Analysis of data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University by Dr. Ruth Turley, Houston Education Research Consortium. Retrieved from https://www.understandinghouston.org/blog/the-costliest-problem-we-know-how-to-fix
  21. Rothstein, R. (2015). The racial achievement gap, segregated schools, and segregated neighborhoods: A constitutional insult. Race and social problems, 7(1), 21-30.