Understanding Houston

Academic Outcomes

Academic Outcomes

Grade-level performance from elementary through high school shapes far more than test scores

Academic outcomes for students in Houston’s three-county region suffered because of the pandemic, and while third grade reading performance has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, proficiency in eighth-grade math and algebra has not yet recovered. High school graduation rates in the suburban counties exceed 90%, with Harris County at 89%.

Why academic outcomes matters to Houston

Schools play a vital role, equipping children and adolescents with the foundational skills and knowledge they need to succeed and contribute to our society. However, children in the Houston region have disparate access to high-quality education that adequately prepares them for academic success. An analysis of 10 years of data from 4,000 school districts and 430 million test scores by the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University found that the strongest predictor of academic achievement gaps is the racial concentration of poverty in schools. Locally and nationally, Black and Hispanic students are five times more likely to attend a high-poverty (i.e. at least 75% of students experience poverty) school than white students1, which results in very different educational experiences: High-poverty schools tend to have lower access to resources than low-poverty schools, students from low-income families on average perform better in low-poverty than high-poverty schools and it costs more per-pupil to educate a poor student in a high-poverty school than it does to educate a similar student in a low-poverty school. Not only are these gaps harmful for the affected individuals, but they also have consequences on the wider economy. A 2009 report by McKinsey & Company estimated that gaps in educational outcomes have had a larger negative impact on GDP than all recessions from the 1970s up to that point.

Individuals who struggle to read critically, understand mathematical concepts, and graduate from high school are most likely to have limited prospects — academic, professional, social, economic — in the future. Established literature has found that student performance in third-grade reading2 and eighth-grade math or algebra3 are most predictive of future educational outcomes. Three key indicators — standardized test performance, high school graduation rates and non-completion rates — illustrate, in part, how Houston-area schools are serving students.

The better we understand how Houston-area students are performing, the more that can be done to ensure our schools are adequately preparing them for a productive and prosperous future.

The data

The State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness (STAAR) testing program is based on curriculum standards in grades 3 through 8 (such as reading, writing, mathematics) and in core subjects typically taken in high school (such as history, science, social studies). Because of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Texas canceled STAAR tests in Spring 2020. TEA made the test optional in 2021 for students who were learning remotely (76% of whom still participated). Overall, 88% of students across the state participated in STAAR in 2021 compared to 99% in 2019. Given these anomalies, the 2021 data should be interpreted with caution. STAAR participation rates ticked back up with 99% of Texas students taking the exam in 2022 and after.

Additionally, as we dig into specific population groups, it is important to note that TEA masks certain data at the district level if there are fewer than five students. When aggregated over many districts, this can lead to a lower reported scores, an undercount, and/or wide variance across years for smaller student populations like for Asian American or Black students in Montgomery County, or Special Ed and Emergent Bilingual students in both suburban counties, among others.

STAAR third-grade reading scores continue to climb

Third grade has been identified as important to reading literacy because it is the final year children are learning to read, after which they are “reading to learn.” Proficiency in third-grade reading exams correlates with success in future academic outcomes,4 including success in higher-level math coursework,5 eighth-grade reading level and college enrollment.6 Moreover, research has shown that third-grade students who do not read proficiently are four times more likely to not graduate from high school on time than those who read proficiently.7

STAAR third grade reading scores tend to be highest in Fort Bend County followed by Montgomery County, performing higher than the statewide average and Harris County. The percentage of third graders who scored at or above grade level reached a seven-year peak across geographies in 2025. Since 2018, scores increased by 12 points in Fort Bend, 9 points in Harris and Montgomery counties, and 8 points statewide, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Despite this progress, only about half of third graders in Harris County are reading on or above grade level.

The percentage of third graders in Fort Bend County who met or exceeded grade-level reading standards rose by 12 points between 2018 (52%) and 2025 (63%).

The same county-level pattern emerges when disaggregating by various demographic and school program characteristics. Nearly all groups saw an increase in the share of students who met standards in 2025 compared to 2018.

Third graders in Fort Bend saw the largest gains, but scores increased across nearly all groups. In Fort Bend County, Black students saw the largest gains in the percentage that met or exceeded standards for third-grade reading, increasing by 17 points; economically disadvantaged students experienced a 14-point increase. Black students in Harris County also saw the largest gains (13 points) followed closely by white students (11 points). In Montgomery County, the percentage of Hispanic students who met or exceeded standards in third grade reading increased 10 percentage points.  

Despite these improvements, disparities across groups persist. Students enrolled in special education continue to face the greatest challenges in meeting third grade reading standards. In 2025, about 28% met state standards in Harris County. In 2025, non-economically disadvantaged students in Houston’s three-county region met third grade reading standards at rates about 30 percentage points higher than students who are classified as economically disadvantaged.

STAAR algebra scores fell sharply after the pandemic and have been slow to recover

Proficiency in eighth-grade math is an important measure to assess student readiness for high school and has been linked to future academic success in higher-level math, which has consequences for college readiness and enrollment.8

Eighth-graders who are not enrolled in algebra take the eighth-grade math STAAR test, while eighth-graders who are enrolled in algebra take the Algebra End-of-Course (EOC) exam to assess proficiency.

Student performance on the STAAR eighth grade math exam has been significantly impacted by the pandemic. The share of students who met standards on the STAAR eighth-grade math test in each of the Houston area’s three counties and statewide was lower in 2025 than in 2018. Despite experiencing the largest decline during this period, Montgomery County continued to lead the three-county region in 2025 at 53%, followed by 49% in Fort Bend County and 50% in Harris County. The share of eighth graders who met or exceeded grade level standards on the STAAR math exam peaked in 2019 and then sharply fell in 2021. Since these 2021 lows, the share of eighth graders who meet or exceed math standards in 2025 increased by 12 points in Fort Bend and 15 points in Harris County, compared to 11-point gains statewide. Despite this strong demonstration of growth, only about half of Houston-area eighth graders are considered on grade level in math.

Despite double-digit gains in Fort Bend and Harris counties, Houston-area eighth graders are still struggling to catch up to state standards in algebra since the pandemic’s deep declines.

In Houston’s three-county area, most demographic groups saw declines in the percentage of eighth graders who met grade level standards in math between 2018 and 2025, with the greatest declines seen in Montgomery County. In Fort Bend County, female and white students saw the largest declines, each falling 8 percentage points from 2018 to 2025. In Harris County, Hispanic students saw the largest drop in the share of students meeting performance on the STAAR eighth-grade math exam—a decline of 5 points. And the gap between students classified as economically disadvantaged and not-economically-disadvantaged are significant, with a high of 32 percentage points in Montgomery County to a “low” of 27 points in Harris County.

In Montgomery County, economically disadvantaged eighth-graders trail their wealthier peers by 32 percentage points on the STAAR math test.

Algebra is typically introduced in ninth grade and is an indicator of future academic success.9 However, students who take algebra in eighth grade are more likely to attend and complete college.10 Results for students who took algebra in between 2018 and 2025 are below. These results include anyone who took the Algebra End-of-Course (EOC) in eighth or ninth grade.

Performance on the Algebra EOC exams saw significant declines due to the pandemic, with the share of Houston-area students who met standards about 10 points lower in 2025 compared to 2019. While Algebra EOC performance began to rebound after 2021, it remains below where they were pre-pandemic (2019)—by 17 points in Fort Bend, 9 points in Harris, and 13 points in Montgomery counties.

The share of students in Fort Bend County who met or exceeded standards on the Algebra EOC exam declined by 16 percentage points from 2018 to 2025—the largest decline in the region. In 2025, 52% of students in Harris County passed the Algebra EOC exam—the highest passing rate in the region—followed by 50% in Fort Bend County and 48% in Montgomery County. All three Houston-area counties out-performed the state average of 45%.

52% of students in Harris County passed the Algebra EOC exam in 2025—the highest rate in the three-county region.

Algebra EOC performance generally weakened between 2018 and 2025, but the decline was uneven. Fort Bend experienced the sharpest broad-based losses, including roughly 18-point drops for Black, Hispanic, female, and economically disadvantaged students. Montgomery County also saw substantial declines with the same student groups experiencing the greatest losses. Harris County was comparatively stable across most groups. Students classified as not economically disadvantaged are twice as likely to pass the Algebra EOC compared to their economically disadvantaged peers.

The 2025 Algebra EOC results in Fort Bend County show a 32-percentage-point divide between economically disadvantaged students and their not-economically-disadvantaged peers.

High school graduation rates tick up

Graduating from high school within four years is correlated with many positive future educational and life outcomes, as a diploma is a minimum requirement for most well-paying jobs and higher education. People with high school diplomas are less likely to rely on public assistance and interact with the criminal legal system, and are more likely to pursue postsecondary training and/or education and have higher earnings.11

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the graduation rate for the Class of 2024 was 89.0% for the nation and 91.2% for Texas, ranking the state 11th among the 50 states and District of Columbia.

In the Houston three-county region, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties have consistently had higher graduation rates compared to the state, while Harris County’s rate has been the lowest, though that gap has narrowed in recent years. Harris County’s graduation rate increased by about 5 percentage points from 84% in 2011 to 89% in 2024; Fort Bend and Montgomery counties also increased their grad rates over the last decade, by 3–4 percentage points, respectively.

As with most educational outcomes, high school graduation rates vary by demographic characteristics and program. This is partly because of discriminatory practices that have existed since the nation’s founding (such as redlining), exacerbated by present-day disparities (i.e., poverty, disinvestment in public schools).

Among the Class of 2024, within their respective counties, men had slightly lower graduation rates than women; students classified as economically disadvantaged had lower graduation rates than their more economically secure peers; and students enrolled in special ed programs or who were emergent bilingual had the lowest graduation rates.

Graduation rates between 2020 and 2024 increased across all demographic groups in Harris County and in Montgomery County, with the exception of students enrolled in special ed programs where they fell by about 3 percentage points. In Fort Bend County, graduation rates were mostly flat except it declined by 3 percentage points for Black students and increased four percentage points among emergency bilingual students. Statewide, graduation rates were mostly flat across demographic groups, except for emergent bilingual students whose graduation rates increased by 6 percentage points between 2020 and 2024.

The gap in graduation rates between 2020 and 2024 for non-economically disadvantaged students compared to their economically disadvantaged peers widened slightly in Fort Bend and Harris counties, while it decreased slightly in Montgomery County.

High school non-completion rates in Houston’s suburban counties are lowest in the region

Given the importance of high school graduation for later educational and economic outcomes, it is unsurprising that leaving high school without a diploma has consistently been linked with negative life outcomes. Students who leave high school without a diploma are more likely to be unemployed, earn less, rely on public assistance, and become involved in the criminal legal system.12 On average, a person without a high school diploma can expect to earn about $330,000 less over their lifetime than someone with a high school diploma as their highest level of educational attainment.13

Studies suggest that not completing high school is the outcome of a dynamic and cumulative process of disengagement. Common reasons for leaving before graduating include missing too many school days, failing too many classes, not being engaged in school, and having family obligations. The key to reducing the non-completion rate is to pay attention to all signs of disengagement and intervene at an early stage.14,15

The high school non-completion rate in Texas has hovered around 6% over the past decade. Non-completion rates are consistently highest in Harris County, averaging between7–8%. Non-completion rates in Fort Bend and Montgomery counties have been relatively steady since 2011 and are consistently lower than the statewide rate.

While calculated differently than above, the National Center for Education Statistics reports the high school non-completion rate in 2024 was 2.6% nationally and 1.9% in Texas.

High school non-completion rates in Houston’s three-county region are consistently highest in Harris County.

High schools in the three-county region are less likely to graduate Black and Latino students, which is why these groups also have higher non-completion rates compared to their white peers. This is partly because Black and Latino students are five times more likely to attend a high-poverty school than white students,16 resulting in unequal educational experiences.17

Among the Class of 2024, men left high school before graduating at slightly higher rates than women; students classified as economically disadvantaged did not finish at higher rates than their higher-income peers; and students in special ed programs or who are emergent bilingual had the highest non-completion rates, numbering in the double-digits in Harris County and statewide. 

Between 2020 and 2024, non-completion rates in Fort Bend County increased by about 3 percentage points among students in special ed programs. Positively, high school non-completion rates fell by five percentage points for emergent bilingual students in Harris County during the same period, though about 14% of students classified as emergent bilingual leave high school without graduating. Among Houston’s three-county region, only Montgomery County saw a narrowing of the gap between students classified as economically disadvantaged and their non-economically disadvantaged counterparts.

Resources

References:

  1. Analysis of data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University by Dr. Ruth Turley, Houston Education Research Consortium. Retrieved from https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/concentrated-poverty-schools-redlinings-legacy-undoing-it-should-be-ours
  2. Hernandez, D. J. (2011). Double jeopardy: How third-grade reading skills and poverty influence high school graduation. Annie E. Casey Foundation. Retrieved from https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED518818.pdf
  3. Wang, J., & Goldschmidt, P. (2003). Importance of middle school mathematics on high school students’ mathematics achievement. The Journal of Educational Research, 97(1), 3-17.
  4. Dan Goldhaber, Malcolm Wolff, Timothy Daly (2021). Assessing the Accuracy of Elementary School Test Scores as Predictors of Students’ High School Outcomes. CALDER Working Paper No. 235-0821-2
  5. Kevin J. Grimm. (2008). Longitudinal Associations Between Reading and Mathematics Achievement, Developmental Neuropsychology, 33:3, 410-426, DOI: 10.1080/87565640801982486
  6. Lesnick, J., Goerge, R.M., & Smithgall, C. (2010). Reading on grade level in third grade: How is it related to high school performance and college enrollment? Chicago, IL: Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago.
  7. The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2010). Early Warning! Why Reading by the End of Third Grade Matters. KIDS COUNT Special Report. Retrieved from https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/AECF-Early_Warning_Full_Report-2010.pdf
  8. Wang, J., & Goldschmidt, P. (2003).
  9. Walston, J., & McCarroll, J. C. (2010). Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K). Statistics in Brief. NCES 2010-016. National Center for Education Statistics.
  10. Loveless, Tom. (2001) “How well are American students learning?” The Brown Center Report on Education, Washington, DC. 1(2). https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/09education-1.pdf
  11. Rumberger, R. W. (1987). High school dropouts: A review of issues and evidence. Review of educational research, 57(2), 101-121.
  12. Rumberger, R. W. (1987).
  13. Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Wenzinger, E.(2021). The College Payoff: More Education Doesn’t Always Mean More Earnings. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved from https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegepayoff2021/.
  14. National Research Council. High school dropout, graduation, and completion rates: Better data, better measures, better decisions. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2011. https://www.nap.edu/read/13035/chapter/1
  15. Doll, J. J., Eslami, Z., & Walters, L. (2013). Understanding Why Students Drop Out of High School, According to Their Own Reports: Are They Pushed or Pulled, or Do They Fall Out? A Comparative Analysis of Seven Nationally Representative Studies. SAGE Open. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244013503834
  16. Analysis of data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University by Dr. Ruth Turley, Houston Education Research Consortium. Retrieved from https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/concentrated-poverty-schools-redlinings-legacy-undoing-it-should-be-ours
  17. Rothstein, R. (2015). The racial achievement gap, segregated schools, and segregated neighborhoods: A constitutional insult. Race and social problems, 7(1), 21-30.